財務、會計seminar第二百期

發布者:劉銀燕浏覽數:

发布時间:2019-10-31 11:33:00

目:GDP Distortion, Information Advantages, and Analyst Forecast Accuracy

報告人:張飛達,澳大利亞昆士蘭大學商學院,副教授

間:2019111日(星期五),1500-1630

點:嘉庚二512

主持人:杜興強教授

者:對會計、財務研究有興趣的師生

論文摘要:Prior literature documents that GDP management leads to biased GDP numbers which are vital to the decisions of businesses and policymakers (e.g. Lyu et al. 2018). However, the evidence on the economic consequences of distorted GDP data is scant. This paper examines the economic consequences of regional GDP distortion from the perspective of analyst forecasts. We find that regional GDP distortion leads to lower analyst forecast accuracy (AFA), and this result is robust to potential endogeneity. Further investigations show that analysts with information advantages have the ability to resist the distorted GDP data and issue accurate forecasts. Our paper contributes to the literature by highlighting the importance of the reliability of GDP figures as a determinant of analyst forecast accuracy.